U.S. Economic Expectations Imply 100 Days at Stall Speed
This week, both the Fed and the European Central Bank meet and seem likely to adopt additional "creative" ways to stimulate the global economy in an effort to avoid a EU financial crisis and a...
View ArticleThe Incredible Shrinking U.S. Workforce
Gallup Daily tracking, based on a random sample of more than 29,000 U.S. households, shows a potential dramatic drop in the government's seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate to 63.1% in...
View ArticleBLS and Gallup Data Show Jobs Situation Getting Worse
Despite the unexpectedly large increase of 163,000 jobs in July according to the establishment survey, Gallup and BLS household survey data show that the U.S. unemployment situation continues to...
View ArticleSmall Business Net Job Creation Helps Explain Job Growth
In July, 14% of U.S. small business owners say they increased jobs at their companies over the past 12 months and 21% say they decreased them according to the Wells Fargo-Gallup Small Business Index....
View ArticleRyan Addition, Fiscal Cliff Could Halt Economy
The addition of Paul Ryan to the Romney presidential ticket is going to greatly increase the political focus on Medicare, Social Security, the federal budget deficit, and the fiscal cliff. In turn,...
View ArticleAugust Unemployment Not Looking Good
New Gallup unemployment data suggest an increase in the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August when it is reported on Friday, Sept. 7. During recent months, Gallup's measurements...
View ArticleRetired Americans Must Reinvent Themselves to Get a Job
While everyone knows jobs are hard to get, Americans who want to work during retirement sometimes seem forgotten. This is important not only because many baby boomers need to continue working in...
View ArticleWatch How Republican Convention Treats Fed Independence
A major stealth issue to watch for at the Republican Convention is how key Republicans talk about the Fed's independence. Ben Bernanke is relatively unpopular as chairman of the Federal Reserve. In...
View ArticleAugust Unemployment Rate Still Not Looking Good
Friday’s unemployment report could have more impact on U.S. voters than the two national conventions leading up to it. In this regard, Gallup’s end-of-August unemployment data continue to suggest no...
View ArticleDid the U.S. Labor Force Shrink by 1.27 Million in August?
The government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August matched Gallup's estimate at 8.1%. However, the reason for the decline in the government's unemployment numbers is that, on an...
View ArticleCould the September Unemployment Rate Fall to 7.9%?
Despite what was generally seen as a relatively poor August unemployment report, economic confidence is up, Wall Street is up, and the president continues to lead Mitt Romney as the elections approach....
View ArticleSome Essential Facts About Consumer Confidence in September
by Lydia Saad and Dennis Jacobe 1. Americans’ confidence in the economy is undeniably up this month. Gallup reported this on Sept. 11, Sept. 18, and Sept. 25 in our weekly updates of the Gallup...
View ArticleWill Friday’s Unemployment Report Help Obama?
Given the results of last night’s presidential debate, the administration could use some good news in Friday’s unemployment report. A decline in the government's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate...
View ArticleTime to Replace the Unemployment Rate
This blog mentioned in mid-September that it was possible -- if unlikely, based on Gallup's survey data that include 30,000 interviews per month -- that September's seasonally adjusted unemployment...
View ArticleShrinking Workforce Driving 7.8% Unemployment Rate
The decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September from 8.3% in July was driven by a sharp decline in the U.S. workforce over these two months. The impact of the shrinking workforce on the...
View ArticleThree in Four Democrats Say Economy Is “Getting Better”
In behavioral economics, as well as in politics, economic perceptions are often more important than economic reality. In this regard, improving economic confidence is likely good news politically for...
View ArticleUnemployment Rate Decline Is Misleading
Gallup’s new P2P (Payroll to Population) job market measurement shows essentially no improvement in the U.S. job market over the past four months and in early October. This stands in sharp contrast to...
View ArticleOctober’s Unemployment Rate May Fall Below 7.8%
Last month, the government surprised almost everyone by reporting that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September. Now, Gallup Daily tracking data suggest the government could...
View ArticleUpper-Income Spending Plummets as Higher Taxes Loom
The post-election focus on the fiscal cliff has implications not only for the long-term economic outlook, but also for the immediate future. There is no better illustration of the real world impact of...
View ArticleFiscal Cliff Already Hurting the U.S. Economy
While many politicians and economists talk about the potential for another recession if the U.S. goes over the "fiscal cliff," few seem to recognize that the fiscal-cliff debate itself is already...
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